A prolonged disruption to the world’s most vital energy and fertilizer transit route, the Strait of Hormuz, could trigger a catastrophic spike in global cereal prices, potentially resulting in one million additional deaths and leaving tens of millions of people facing acute malnutrition by 2030. According to a comprehensive new study commissioned by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), the closure of this maritime chokepoint would create a systemic shock to the global food system, driven by the dual collapse of energy supplies and nitrogen-based fertilizer availability. The modeling, conducted by an interdisciplinary team of researchers from the University of Edinburgh, the University of Aberdeen, and Scotland’s Rural College, paints a grim picture of a world where localized geopolitical conflict translates into a global humanitarian crisis of unprecedented scale.
The Strait of Hormuz as a Global Economic Hub
The Strait of Hormuz is widely regarded as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint. Located between Oman and Iran, it connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. While its role in global oil markets is well-documented—accounting for nearly 20% of global oil supply—its importance to the agricultural sector is often overlooked. The region is a powerhouse for the production of urea, a primary component of nitrogen fertilizer, which is synthesized using the abundant natural gas reserves of the Persian Gulf.
Prior to the current geopolitical tensions, producers reliant on the Strait accounted for approximately 40% of the global urea trade and more than 20% of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade. Because nitrogen fertilizer is a critical input for high-yield cereal production, any disruption to its distribution has an immediate and direct impact on global crop yields. The ICC-commissioned study suggests that the interdependence of energy and agriculture means that a crisis in the Strait is not merely a regional security issue but a fundamental threat to the "planetary health" of the global population.
Modeling the Most Severe Scenarios
The research team utilized sophisticated economic and agricultural modeling to project the impacts of a sustained closure of the Strait. In the study’s most severe scenario, global cereal prices—encompassing staples such as wheat, maize, and rice—could surge by as much as 81% above 2020 levels. This price shock would be felt most acutely by households in East Asia, the Pacific, and Sub-Saharan Africa, where consumer food prices are projected to rise nearly 70% above the 2020 baseline.
The mechanics of this shock are driven by a sharp contraction in agricultural inputs. The modeling indicates that higher energy and fertilizer costs would lead to a 37% reduction in the use of nitrogen fertilizers globally. As farmers find these inputs unaffordable or unavailable, cereal productivity is expected to drop by up to 10%. This reduction in yield, combined with the increased cost of production and transport, creates a supply-side squeeze that pushes prices far beyond the reach of the world’s most vulnerable populations.
For poorer households, who often spend a significant portion of their income on basic staples, these price increases necessitate a series of desperate coping mechanisms. These include reducing total calorie consumption, eliminating dietary diversity (such as fresh vegetables and proteins), and eventually facing the physical toll of malnutrition. The modeling suggests that under a sustained disruption, 67 million more people would be classified as underweight by 2030, with a disproportionate burden falling on the Global South.
A Chronology of Market Volatility and Risk
The current warnings from the ICC come after several years of extreme volatility in the global fertilizer and energy markets. To understand the gravity of the current situation, it is necessary to look at the timeline of events that have already weakened the global food system:
- 2020-2021 (Post-Pandemic Recovery): As global economies reopened following COVID-19 lockdowns, a surge in demand for energy led to rising natural gas prices. Since natural gas is the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, prices began to climb steadily throughout 2021.
- 2022 (The Ukraine Conflict): The invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a major exporter of both energy and fertilizers, sent markets into a tailspin. Global fertilizer prices reached record highs, and the Black Sea Grain Initiative became a critical lifeline for stabilizing cereal markets.
- 2023-2024 (Regional Tensions in the Middle East): Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have placed renewed focus on the Strait of Hormuz. While physical trade has continued, the risk premium on shipping and insurance has increased, and the potential for a total or partial closure has become a central concern for global risk analysts.
- Mid-2024 (Demand Destruction): Industry data cited by the ICC shows that between April and June 2024, approximately 3.7 million tonnes of urea demand was "destroyed or deferred"—a 27% year-on-year decline. This suggests that farmers are already pulling back from purchasing essential inputs, which will have a delayed but significant impact on future harvests.
The Human Cost: Mortality and Malnutrition
The most sobering aspect of the study is its projection of human mortality. The modeling suggests that the shock to the food system could contribute to approximately one million additional dietary health-related deaths by 2030. These deaths are not only the result of starvation but also the long-term health consequences of nutrient-poor diets, which increase susceptibility to infectious diseases and chronic conditions.
The geographic distribution of this mortality is starkly unequal. South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the East Asia-Pacific region are expected to account for approximately 80% of the additional deaths and more than 90% of the additional underweight burden. In contrast, higher-income regions like North America and Western Europe are expected to see little change in health outcomes, as these nations possess the fiscal capacity to subsidize food costs and maintain social safety nets.
Dr. Jay Burns, the lead author of the study from the University of Edinburgh, emphasized that the crisis creates a "chain reaction" that starts with conflict and ends with human suffering. He noted that while wealthier countries might see a modest reduction in "excessive demand" due to higher prices—potentially a small benefit in terms of reducing overconsumption—this is overshadowed by the catastrophic impact on the poor. "The reality facing the world’s poorest households… is that even modest price increases will mean compounding reductions in both total calorie intake and dietary diversity," Burns stated.
Official Responses and Calls for Humanitarian Action
The International Chamber of Commerce has been vocal in its call for international intervention to prevent a full-scale food crisis. ICC Secretary General John W.H. Denton AO has characterized the restoration of commercial shipments through the Strait of Hormuz as a "global humanitarian imperative."
Denton warned that recent dips in urea prices should not be interpreted as a sign that the market has stabilized. Instead, he argued that the lower prices are a result of "demand destruction," where farmers have simply stopped buying fertilizers because they can no longer afford them or fear future instability. "Much of the adjustment has come from farmers and buyers stepping back, rather than a durable restoration of supply," Denton noted. "As demand returns ahead of forthcoming planting seasons, there is a real risk that prices could spike again."
The ICC is urging governments to move beyond military posturing and focus on diplomatic and technical mechanisms to ensure the safe movement of agricultural inputs. Specifically, the organization is calling for:
- Safe Passage Agreements: The activation of temporary mechanisms to facilitate the predictable movement of essential fertilizers and energy through the Strait, regardless of the security situation.
- Financial Support: Coordinated financial assistance for vulnerable, import-dependent economies to help them absorb the cost of rising food and input prices.
- Market Transparency: Enhanced monitoring of fertilizer inventories and planting cycles to prevent panic-buying and hoarding.
Broader Implications and the Concept of Planetary Health
The findings of this study contribute to an emerging discourse on "planetary health," which examines the links between human health and the political, economic, and environmental systems that sustain it. The research demonstrates that in a globalized economy, a localized conflict can have biological consequences thousands of miles away.
Furthermore, the study highlights the "long tail" of market disruptions. Even in scenarios where trade flows are gradually restored over a five-year period, the modeling suggests that between 7 million and 16 million people would still be underweight in 2030 as a direct result of the initial shock. This is because disruptions to planting cycles and the depletion of grain inventories cannot be corrected overnight; the effects of a single missed planting season can reverberate through the food system for years.
The vulnerability of the global food supply to energy shocks also underscores the need for a more resilient agricultural model. While the world currently relies on nitrogen fertilizers produced from natural gas, the ICC study suggests that the extreme sensitivity of this system to geopolitical instability is a major strategic weakness. However, in the short term, there is no viable alternative to the urea trade flowing through the Strait of Hormuz if global cereal production is to be maintained at current levels.
Conclusion
The ICC-commissioned modeling serves as a stark warning to global policymakers that the stakes in the Strait of Hormuz extend far beyond the price of gasoline. The inextricable link between energy, fertilizer, and food means that any prolonged disruption to this maritime corridor will be measured not just in dollars or barrels, but in lives. With one million potential deaths on the horizon and tens of millions at risk of malnutrition, the international community faces a critical window to secure the trade of essential agricultural nutrients before the next planting season begins. As Dr. Jay Burns concluded, those with the least capacity to absorb these shocks are the ones who will feel them most severely, making the stabilization of the Strait a matter of global justice as much as global security.
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