As the National Football League prepares for its 2026 campaign, the analytical lens is already sharply focused on which franchises are best positioned for success. Aaron Schatz, a national NFL analyst for ESPN and the Chief Analytics Officer at FTN Fantasy, has provided an early outlook based on advanced statistical modeling, identifying several teams that project strongly, alongside others facing unique challenges or opportunities. His projections, rooted in the robust Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric, highlight the Houston Texans as a standout contender in the AFC and position the Seattle Seahawks as one of the league’s most formidable teams overall. Schatz’s analysis also delves into the Super Bowl prospects for the Los Angeles Rams, scrutinizes the defensive strength of the Buffalo Bills, outlines the Philadelphia Eagles’ intricate path through the NFC East, and identifies potential surprise teams and those slated for regression.
The Foundation of Foresight: Understanding DVOA
At the core of Schatz’s projections is DVOA, a proprietary stat developed by Football Outsiders (now integrated with FTN Fantasy) that evaluates every play in the NFL season, adjusting for various contextual factors. Unlike traditional statistics that merely tally yardage or points, DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing its performance on a given play to a league-average baseline, taking into account the down, distance, field position, and opponent strength. A positive DVOA percentage indicates above-average performance, while a negative percentage signifies below-average play. The metric is broken down into offensive, defensive, and special teams components, offering a holistic view of a team’s overall strength and efficiency.
The methodology behind DVOA is designed to strip away the "noise" of raw statistics, providing a clearer picture of true team quality. For instance, a team that gains 50 yards on a drive against a struggling defense might receive a different DVOA score than a team gaining 30 yards against an elite defense in a crucial moment. This granular, play-by-play adjustment makes DVOA a powerful predictive tool, as it aims to quantify sustainable performance rather than just outcomes influenced by luck or specific game scripts. Over two decades of data have shown DVOA to be a strong indicator of future success, often outperforming simpler metrics in forecasting playoff berths and Super Bowl contenders.
The Rise of Analytics in Professional Football
The NFL’s increasing embrace of advanced analytics mirrors a broader trend across professional sports. What began with sabermetrics in baseball, famously depicted in "Moneyball," has permeated football, transforming how teams scout players, strategize games, and build rosters. Franchises now employ dedicated analytics departments, using data to inform everything from draft decisions to in-game play-calling. DVOA, alongside metrics like Expected Points Added (EPA) and various win probability models, has become a cornerstone of this data-driven revolution.
This shift represents a chronological progression in how football success is understood. Historically, subjective evaluations, traditional scouting, and gut feelings dominated decision-making. While these elements remain crucial, they are now often complemented, and sometimes challenged, by objective data. The period leading up to the 2026 season exemplifies this blend, where seasoned football minds consult with analytical experts like Aaron Schatz to gain a comprehensive, forward-looking perspective. The integration of DVOA-based forecasts into mainstream NFL discourse signifies the metric’s established credibility and its importance in shaping pre-season narratives and expectations.
AFC Outlook: The Houston Texans’ Ascendance
Aaron Schatz identifies the Houston Texans as a standout team in the AFC for the 2026 season, a projection that speaks volumes about the franchise’s rapid development. This assessment is likely predicated on a confluence of factors that DVOA models often reward: elite young quarterback play, innovative coaching, and strategic roster construction. Quarterback C.J. Stroud, assuming continued progression from his impressive rookie campaign and beyond, would be a significant driver. DVOA heavily weights quarterback performance, as the position is undeniably the most impactful in the modern NFL. A highly efficient quarterback who minimizes turnovers and consistently delivers positive expected points on passing plays can dramatically elevate a team’s overall DVOA.
Under head coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans have demonstrated a commitment to foundational improvements, particularly on defense. DVOA’s defensive component assesses a unit’s ability to prevent opponents from gaining yardage efficiently, generate negative plays, and limit scoring opportunities. If Ryans continues to cultivate a top-tier defense that complements Stroud’s evolving offense, the Texans become a formidable threat. Furthermore, the team’s cap flexibility and draft capital in preceding offseasons would allow for targeted acquisitions to address weaknesses and build depth, factors that DVOA models implicitly account for by projecting roster strength. The implication for the AFC is a potential shift in power dynamics, with the Texans moving from an underdog to a legitimate perennial contender, challenging established AFC East and West giants. While no official statement from the Texans’ front office would explicitly endorse an analytical projection, their actions in player acquisition and coaching stability consistently suggest a belief in their upward trajectory.
NFC Contenders: Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams
On the NFC side, the Seattle Seahawks are projected by Schatz to be one of the league’s strongest teams. This forecast suggests that DVOA sees a robust foundation in Seattle, likely encompassing a balanced attack and consistent performance across all three phases of the game. A strong DVOA projection for the Seahawks might indicate a high level of efficiency in their offensive scheme, potentially featuring a reliable rushing attack and an efficient passing game that maximizes play-action and minimizes turnovers. Defensively, DVOA would likely highlight their ability to generate pressure, limit explosive plays, and perform well in crucial down-and-distance situations. Special teams, often overlooked in traditional analysis but fully integrated into DVOA, could also be a quiet strength contributing to their overall standing.
The Los Angeles Rams also receive attention regarding their Super Bowl outlook. For a team with a veteran core and a recent championship pedigree, DVOA projections would scrutinize their ability to maintain elite performance, particularly from key players like Aaron Donald and Matthew Stafford. The metric would assess the efficiency of Sean McVay’s offensive schemes and the defensive coordinator’s ability to maximize their talent. A strong Super Bowl projection from DVOA implies that, despite potential age concerns for some stars or salary cap challenges, the Rams possess a high floor of talent and coaching acumen that, if healthy, can deliver championship-level efficiency in critical moments. The "chaos" factor, however, is particularly relevant for veteran-laden teams, as injuries to key players can disproportionately impact their DVOA.
Divisional Battles: Bills’ Defense and Eagles’ NFC East Path
The Buffalo Bills’ defense is singled out by Schatz, indicating that DVOA sees this unit as a dominant force. DVOA’s defensive metrics are incredibly detailed, accounting for success against the run, pass, and situational performance (e.g., third down, red zone). For the Bills, this projection likely underscores their ability to consistently generate pressure, create turnovers, and shut down opposing offenses efficiently. A strong defensive DVOA can often compensate for slight inconsistencies elsewhere, providing a team with a high floor for success, particularly in playoff scenarios where defensive efficiency becomes paramount. The longevity and talent of players like Von Miller (if still productive) and other core defenders would be key components of such a projection.
For the Philadelphia Eagles, Schatz examines their path through the NFC East, a division often characterized by its competitiveness and unpredictability. DVOA models can project divisional outcomes by comparing the projected strengths of each team within the division, taking into account factors like head-to-head records, common opponents, and strength of schedule. The Eagles’ DVOA projection would consider their offensive efficiency (led by Jalen Hurts’ performance), defensive prowess, and special teams contributions relative to the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, and Washington Commanders. A challenging path suggests that while the Eagles may be strong, their divisional rivals are also projected to be highly efficient, leading to tight contests and potentially critical swing games that could determine playoff seeding. The dynamic nature of the NFC East, with teams often making significant offseason moves, makes this specific divisional forecast particularly compelling for DVOA, which thrives on accounting for such fluctuations.
Identifying Surprise and Regression Candidates
Beyond the established contenders, Schatz’s DVOA-based forecasts are adept at identifying teams that could surprise or regress significantly. A "surprise" team is often one that has a lower DVOA in a preceding season but whose underlying metrics (e.g., strong play in specific situations, high rookie talent acquisition, positive coaching changes) suggest an impending breakout. Conversely, a "regression" candidate is typically a team that overperformed its DVOA in a previous year, perhaps due to an unsustainable turnover margin, a remarkably easy schedule, or an unusually healthy season. DVOA aims to normalize these variances, predicting a return to a more statistically probable level of performance.
For example, a team with an exceptionally high DVOA in red-zone defense one season might be flagged for potential regression if its underlying talent level doesn’t fully support that efficiency, suggesting some level of luck was involved. Similarly, a team with a strong DVOA in early downs but a poor record might be a surprise candidate, as it indicates they are consistently putting themselves in good positions but failing to convert, an issue that could be resolved with minor adjustments or better luck. These projections are crucial for sports bettors, fantasy analysts, and even team executives looking for undervalued assets or potential pitfalls.
DVOA’s Comprehensive Accounting: Beyond the Box Score
One of the most valuable aspects of DVOA is its comprehensive accounting for various factors that influence team performance:
- Quarterback Performance: DVOA goes beyond simple completion percentages or yardage, assessing a quarterback’s efficiency on every throw, adjusting for difficulty and outcome. It quantifies how much value a QB adds or subtracts relative to an average player in the same situation.
- Coaching Changes: While not directly input into DVOA, the metric indirectly accounts for coaching impact by tracking how teams perform under new leadership. Historically, some coaches consistently elevate efficiency, while others struggle, and DVOA reflects these trends over time.
- Injuries: DVOA projections can be adjusted for significant known injuries, or models can incorporate the historical impact of injuries on team efficiency, providing a more realistic outlook for a team’s potential performance with a modified roster.
- Schedules: Crucially, DVOA explicitly adjusts for strength of schedule. A team facing a gauntlet of top-tier opponents will have its raw statistics normalized against the difficulty of its schedule, preventing misleading comparisons with teams that played an easier slate.
- Balance of Offense, Defense, and Special Teams: DVOA’s tripartite breakdown ensures that a team’s overall efficiency is not skewed by exceptional performance in just one phase. A truly strong DVOA projection indicates efficiency across offense, defense, and special teams, reflecting a well-rounded and fundamentally sound organization.
The Enduring Element of Chaos
Despite the sophistication of DVOA-based forecasts, Aaron Schatz rightly emphasizes that even the best projections leave plenty of room for the inherent "chaos" of an NFL season. Football is a game of immense variables:
- Freak Injuries: A season-ending injury to a superstar player can instantly derail a team’s DVOA projection, something no model can perfectly foresee.
- Sudden Performance Swings: Unexpected breakouts from unheralded players or sudden regressions from established veterans can defy pre-season expectations.
- In-Game Luck: Bounces of the ball, critical officiating decisions, and improbable turnovers can swing individual game outcomes in ways that DVOA tries to filter out but cannot entirely predict for future events.
- Coaching Innovations: A mid-season schematic adjustment or an unexpected strategic shift by a coach can unlock new levels of efficiency that were not factored into pre-season models.
These unpredictable elements are what make the NFL so compelling and why fans remain glued to the action even with advanced analytics providing informed predictions. While DVOA offers an invaluable framework for understanding team quality and projecting future success, it does not diminish the drama, human element, and sheer unpredictability that define professional football. As the 2026 season approaches, these analytical insights serve as a powerful guide, but the ultimate story will, as always, unfold on the field.
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